Bits and Pieces

Something I wanted to pass along which I found reading blogs last night. One blog I read called the Cuba Journal reported on their Terry Fox Run of March 26th:

HAVANA,

The start/finish line in Havana was across from the Capitol building, at the entrance to the Kid Chocolate Sport Complex.
The race seeked to make the public aware

of the fight against cancer and to promote new life styles. It is also a tribute to Terry Fox, a young Canadian who had one leg amputated when he was 18 due to cancer, and, using a false leg, ran over 42 kilometres every day for 143 days.
As in every year, the race took place in the main avenues, squares and the most remote places of the country. The starting signal was given by the Radio Reloj national station, so that runners in the 169 municipalities of the country could start simultaneously. Everyone could take part, even with roller skates, bicycles or wheelchairs.

After Canada, Cuba is the country with the largest number of participants in the world.

I would have not thought that the Cubans would do Terry Fox runs!

Hemingway

While on the topic of Cuba (well, sort of) I came across an article in the Globe this weekend which reminded me of a few things. Hemingway lived in Cuba for many years and had a property outside of Havana which is now a museum. I would like to see it one day. I found a picture on the net of a bar that Hemingway frequented in Havana. It was taken at La Bodeguita del Medio. Hanging on the bar is a plate with a likeness of Ernest Hemingway and a framed, signed message written by him. He was a regular patron.

Valerie Hemingway was interviewed by Globe writer Barbara Turnbull about the years spent living with and working as Ernest Hemingway's secretary. She later married his son and hence has the famous last name. She published her memoirs in 2004 titled Running With the Bulls. Hemingway was an interesting man and I am sure her story is well worth reading. I am going to find it at the library.

I took the following quote from the Globe article about the time that Valerie spent with Hemingway:

Spending Spain's bullfighting season with him in 1959, working as his secretary through his last good months in Cuba, helping his widow take more than $1 million in art and memorabilia out the country under Fidel Castro's nose and eventually marrying Hemingway's youngest son – who turned out to be a cross-dressing manic-depressive – well qualifies her to be the next speaker in the Unique Lives & Experiences lecture series, appearing tonight at Roy Thomson Hall.

Speakers in the series, sponsored in part by theStar, include: Diane Keaton, Isabella Rossellini and Whoopi Goldberg. More information: www.uniquelives.com

To read the article: She'll share her tales of Hemingway

When I think of Hemingway, I always think about Key West. He had a wonderful house built there and lived there from 1931 to 194o. It is a museum now which I was able to visit during a memorable holiday I had in Key West probably 10 years ago. It was a magical place with lots of 7 toed cats. Key West is a great holiday venue.

Another interesting fact about Hemingway is that he lived in Toronto on Bathurst St. for a period of time and worked as a reporter for the Toronto Star before he moved to France.

To learn more about Ernest Hemingway go here.

The Credit Crisis Explained

I found an interesting video which is a very clever and easy to understand explanation of what happened in the US with their subprime mortgages and how it made the bottom fall out of the credit market.


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

[Posted with iBlogger from my way kool iPhone]

Lazy afternoons are so nice...

Just finished cleaning my little place and getting the laundry well underway and it is only just 1:30!  The day is sunny and just a bit cold, but warm enough to have the windows and balcony doors open a foot or more.  With so much window space in my apartment, the place does heat up on a sunny day.    I am in a happy mood and ready to plan some new projects for the coming months.  But first my blog!

Stock Market Bouncing Back Up or Down?

Firstly, let  me report on the state of the stock market which now is officially in a rally.  For those of you who don't follow such things the market has been steadily rising in this last month.   In stock market speak it is a rally meaning that the market (my favourite - the TSE for instance)  is now trading above its 50 day moving average - which is a fancy way of measuring whether the market is going up and then down or just up.  When the a market index (say the TSE 300) closes at a value above the average of the last 50 days then you can say it for sure is moving up.  When it reaches 20% above its previous low it is called a bear market rally.     

In case you are wondering, if it were to close above its 200 day moving average (which takes a long time) they would proclaim a bull market (which by definition is a rally) and we would be officially out of hot water, at least as far as the stock market is concerned.

The RBC common stocks I bought on Feb 23rd (mentioned in my blog of that date ) have gained 35% in value - up $10.11 a share.  In all my RRSP has recovered  23% of its high water mark value recorded Jan/08.   This is good, but are we out of the woods?  No, not by a long shot.  

 The next question is where will it go next?  Is the market in recovery?  Often during bear markets (that means down markets) the market rallies only to sputter and fall back into a lower position than when the rally started.  That is why it is called a Bear Market Rally.  And this rally may well die and the market will then seek new lows.  

 We need to see if the  “I want my money back people" (those who bought at a certain level are happy to get out once the market returns to that level and they can say at least they didn’t lose anything because they believe it is going to go back down) outweigh the "I want to make a killing people" (those that feel a need to buy so get in while prices are cheap because they believe it is going to go back up where it was and keep rising).  

Time will tell.  This is where hindsight is the only thing to go on.  Either the market will go sideways a while (that is up and down) or it will start moving down.   

The other thing to remember is that the stock market is a leading indicator - that means it will recover before the economy recovers.  The stock market will start to go up long before people start to feel that the economy is once again booming.  

Early Retirement an Unreal Expectation?

I just listened to a video on the Globe's Financial website which discussed retirement expectations and whether one can realistically retire early, at age 65 or whether one should keep working as long as they are able to (health wise).  The point that was being made was that we can expect to live a lot longer than our parents and the defined benefit pension (such as government workers have now) is giving way to more modest plans which may not keep up to our needs during a 30 year retirement.  The thought is that we should work as long as we can because most of us will not have saved enough cash to do otherwise.  Sobering thoughts.  

I am thinking that maybe an adjustment in my expectations is in order.  Perhaps  a number of 4-6 month sabbaticals in the period of my live as I move from age 55-70 might be just as good as out and out retirement.  There is a lot going to be said for keeping mentally active while earning some money to help finance the wonderful holidays I could have over that 20 year period.  Might not be so bad.   

If you want to listen to the Globe Video go here.

Grand Canyon Bound - Joshua Tree Forest

I will finish with a bit more of a travelogue from my Vegas trip.



 We last left of at the breakfast stop and at that point we boarded our comfy mini bus and headed for the West Rim of the Grand Canyon.   We drove for about an hour and a half through a Joshua Tree forest.  Joshua Tree is the common name of at type of Yucca Tree.   This is a particularly slow growing tree - averaging only 1.5 inches per year if water fall is adequate.  Very long lived the forest we drove through was estimated as 900 years old.  Wiki says these trees can live for more than 1,000 years.   The tallest trees can reach a height of 15 meters. They thrive in the dessert grasslands but are not able to grow above the tree line at about 3000 sq feet above sea level.  They are native to areas in the south west mostly within the Mojave Desert. 

About the Grand Canyon

As we moved closer to the Canyon we started up the foothills of the toward the Grand Canyon West Rim.    The Grand Canyon is an fantastic gorge in Arizona cut out of the  surrounding rock by the Colorado River.  The canyon is 277 miles (446 km) long, ranges in width from 4 to 18 miles (6.4 to 29 km) and attains a depth of over a mile (1.83 km) (6000 feet). 

  

There are 3 main tourist areas within the Grand Canyon.  The South and North Rims lie within the Grand Canyon National Park.  The South Rim is the most commercialized and   The North Rim is not accessible by winter, it is 1,000 ft higher and is only serviced by summer roads.  You can descend the canyon and hike and camp within at both these areas.  I understand that the views from the North Rim give a better impression of the expanse of the Gorge, I would gather just because of the higher heights.

Interestingly, there is only about 10-12 miles distance between the South and West Rims.  However it would take 4-5 hours to drive between the two points because there is no way to travel directly from one area to the other.

Unlike the South and North Rim, Grand Canyon West is not part of the Grand Canyon National Park. It is located on the Hualapai Indian Reservation at the western Grand Canyon corridor about 120 miles east of Las Vegas and about 72 miles northwest of Kingman, Arizona. Because the West Rim is more easily accessed from Las Vegas than the South Rim, a great many tourists and tours originate from Las Vegas. 

For more information on the Grand Canyon go to this link.

My bus tour took me to the West Rim and into the Hualapai Indian Reserve.   In one of the coming blogs I will fill you in on the wonders that I saw there.

Incidentally, the Grand Canyon is not one of the 7 natural wonders of the world but is in the running for the New 7 Wonders of the World.  I just checked the "live ranking" at their website and it is currently placing #5 in the category of Caves, Rock Formations and Valleys.   The New 7 Wonders will be the result of a several year process where nominations and voting for the new 7 wonders is taking place via Internet.  You can see more about the New 7 Wonders voting and current results at this link.  And don't forget to cast your vote!

Today is the First Day of the Rest of Your Life

"Brace for a Sharp Slump" - that is the Business News headline today, a proclamation by the International Money Fund (IMF) who are in the process of reducing their forecast for Canada's 2009 output. This was in stark contrast to the rose coloured speech Harper gave to the Board of Trade in Brampton yesterday on the state of our economy. What gives Harper the sudden dose of optimism, you might wonder. Lets put that question aside for the moment.

I hate to think things will "sharply slump" from even the current sad situation we are familiar with today. There is evidence everywhere that things are dire. Every one of us can see evidence in our day to day lives. I went out to lunch with my work crowd yesterday. We went to Alice Fazoolie's downtown a fairly popular middle of the road chain restaurant for the middle class. There were only about 3 tables with paying patrons in the whole restaurant during the lunch time. Last year it would have been mostly full and I guess there may be 40 or more tables in the joint. Last week there were 20 of the 500 people in the Snr VP's Team "down sized" and it was noted that the rest of the decrease was expected to be covered through attrition. It is easy for a company to save money by cancelling or deferring new IT project development in bad times. At RBC, where I work, there are next to no new projects starting up. Only those that can be shown to generate revenue quickly ("cash crops") are being considered.

IMF predicts a "sharp slump". Any more slump and we will be lying on the floor. I guess the only question is how long will it take for us to get enough strength to get up and start going again?

So that brings us back to "Good News Harper", who I think took his clue from Obama's speech of last week where he tried to pump up consumer confidence and do his bit to ensure that further declines were not a self fulfilling prophesy. Obama had previously been accused of being too negative and his tone changed appreciably last week. Harper was just following Obama's lead. As well he should.

The world's economy will continue to decline until we collectively act like it will not. Not to say that in itself that is sufficient for recovery. However, with even the best stimulus package in the world and endless capital pumping money into GM to keep it solvent, that will not provide a turnaround until a critical mass of people actually believe the worst is over. If people think things will get worse – guess what – they will get worse because worried people do not spend. When people sigh in relief and start spending again we will see the taps turned back on and a return to better times.

So what do we do in the meantime? At times like this we need to make sure that we are doing what we can to live within our means and to position ourselves for what events might come our way.

But having done that, it is more important to enjoy each day for what pleasure we can derive from it and to stop looking backwards ("why didn't I put that money aside for the RRSP") and to each coming moment as an opportunity to do something important and to make a difference to ones self or to another person.

Focus on living rather than worrying. Every day we have the opportunity to make today be exactly what we want it to be – to find new and interesting things to read, discuss and to do and to do them with whomever we enjoy being with. There is no doubt that the economy will recover and things will improve at some point. Lets put the bad news aside and focus on the positive. Live today like it is the first day of the rest of your life.

Poem: Douglas Malloch - Its Fine Today

Sure, this world is full of trouble–I ain't said it ain't; Lord, I've had enough and double reason for complaint. Rain and storm have come to fret me, skies are often gray; thorns and brambles have beset me on the road–but say, ain't it fine today?

What's the use of always weepin', making trouble last? What's the use of always keepin thinkin' of the past? Each must have his tribulation—water with his wine; life, it ain't no celebration, trouble? –I've had mine—but today is fine!

It's today that I am livin', not a month ago. Havin'; losin'; takin'; givin'; as time wills it so. Yesterday a cloud of sorrow fell across the way; it may rain again tomorrow, it may rain—but say, ain't it fine today?

"There will be Blood"

That is the headline on the article that jumped out at me in today’s Globe and Mail Business Section. Harvard financial guru and author Niall Ferguson is predicting dire circumstances in our future for years to come and even used the term “Great Recession” to describe today’s economic reality. Frightening stuff! He is in Ottawa to participate in the public-policy think tank, Canada 2020 and is featured in a major interview published in the Globe today.

Life today is a little like being in a war zone – but an economic war zone. Bad news abounds and every authoritative voice covers the latest skirmish, the days end tally of market woes and sad predictions for continuing waves of job losses, recession and investment value freefall. We keep hearing that Canada is not going to have it as bad as the US, but also we hear that we cannot recover until they recover since we are joined at our economic hips.

Us Canadians are also are facing a double dose of depression (no, not the economic kind). This damned winter seems never to end and we are yet again enduring a temperature plunge into the -20 degrees, with wind chill. Makes you want to stay home and hibernate – with the news turned off! But I digress…

This morning I heard that with this latest wave of market freefall, which started on Friday, the Dow Jones had reached its lowest level in 11 years and the TSE was at a 5 year low. We will see if the market continues its downward slide today. Hard to be up when all we hear is down.

I like to fancy myself as a savvy investor. OK – that might be exaggerating, but I have my little RRSP and I have a few stocks in my nest egg and I look after it myself. In the last month I have been looking at the current stock market decline as an opportunity. I have a bit of unused contribution room and it seemed to me if I borrowed and topped it up I could get a big tax deduction and at the same time buy into the market at bargain basement prices. Optimism comes from the thought that I can take advantage of the current situation to vault myself into a better place retirement wise, in 2-3 years when we come out of this slump.

Last week I executed my plan. The market was having a small bit of a rally and ever the optimist, I was thinking that maybe the worst was over and I should jump in. I had borrowed the cash to top up my RRSP from my LOC (at the extraordinary rate of only 3.0%!) and it was sitting there not earning any interest. I had researched and earmarked some preferred and common shares to buy which would bring in 6.5% interest. Seems like a good deal to me and if in the coming years the market recovers, and the stock prices go back to where they were even before the start of this mess – I could double my money! No sense waiting, I thought.

I bought an equal measure of some RBC common shares for $30.35 and RBC Preferred at 25.30. I checked today. The RBC shares are trading at $25.80 – victim of this last major drop which started immediately after I bought them. Murphy’s Law! The series P RBC Preferred I bought had not lost any ground. These shares should stay relatively close to the purchase price because they are more affected by interest rates than anything else – like a bond. When rates go back up the price of these shares will go down – before which I would try and sell them or wait until after the shares go through a rate “reset” (they are pegged to the T Bill rate) when the price should go back near the $25.00 mark.

I am hoping by then the price of the common stock will be rising and I can sell the preferred and buy into the slow rising market to come.. In the meantime I am pretty assured of having a portion of my money in a more liquid asset in case I need the money out of my RRSP. I am hedging my bets.

Now, job done, I am best to just forget about my RRSP and just let it be. Watching it won’t help and will just add to the belief that I am feeling a real pinch – or rather blow - from this recession. I am down about 30% in value – pretty typical, I think. Almost all of my stocks and mutual funds are invested in companies which will no doubt weather this economic storm and in the end recover. Maybe that will be 2-3 years or maybe, God forbid, that will be a decade. The only thing certain is that my retirement is now looking as distant as that moon out in the sky.

[Posted with iBlogger from my way kool iPhone]

Mid Week flies by...

I did get my blog half written yesterday, but I was out last night. It is Winterlicious and I have got to try out as many restaurants as I can! I went to Big Daddy's Crab Shack - which is a New Orleans Restaurant featuring a lot of Creole dishes. I came away completely satiated - in other words I was absolutely filled up and waddled home happily. But too tired when I got home to finish the blog - so here it is 6:30 and I am getting it done now!!!

Obama’s back in my good books. Heard on the news yesterday morning his very humble response to the issues regarding the withdrawl of 2 of his nominated cabinet members due to “issues with their taxes”. He took full responsibility for, in his words, “his screw up” and said it was important to know that there was one rule for all. I was also glad to see that he backtracked on the protectionist stance and indicated that they needed to make sure that their rescue package did not include any measures which might provoke a trade war. Good on him!

I found something in the Globe and Mail yesterday which you might find interesting, particularly if you have young kids. It is a video called “Economy: A bedtime story”, where the reason for the current economic crisis is explained in a bunny themed cartoon story. To see the video go to :
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081223.wvbunny/VideoStory/ It is cute, to the point and absolutely correct!

I found another interesting item on the web in a UK online newspaper. The article reported on the results of studies on what happens in the brain when you read. Apparently the act of reading causes many of the same synapses to fire when you are reading about doing something as if you were really doing the task. The brain is in rehearsal, which suggest that reading may be more than just lying around and accomplishing nothing. Mental note: read more!

From the article:
"There has been good evidence for a while that mental simulation - imagination - can improve performance in sport and other skilled behaviours. This study suggests that readers do mental simulation when they comprehend a story," Jeffrey Zacks, a co-author of the study and director of the university's dynamic cognition laboratory, said today. "It could well be that the simulations we perform when reading function like skilled practice.

So next time you are reading and someone asks you what you are doing you could say that you are practicing!

To find out more go to:
This is your brain on books (The Guardian)